Volume 13, Issue 1 (2024)
QJIA 2024, 13(1): 1-18 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Navid S, Jahansuz M, Soufizadeh S, Ghaffari M. Predicting the Changes of Climatic Parameters in Alborz Province by Using the LARS-WG Model with Risk Management Approach. QJIA 2024; 13 (1) :1-18
URL: http://journal.sbkiran.ir/article-1-60-en.html
URL: http://journal.sbkiran.ir/article-1-60-en.html
University of Tehran
Abstract: (300 Views)
The climate change and the consequent decrease in agricultural production has greatly affected the food security of different regions of the world, including arid and semi-arid regions, and has become one of the concerns of researchers. In order to predict the changes of some climatic parameters of Alborz province in the different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 & RCP8.5) and periods (2024-2040, 2041-2060 & 2061-2080) LARS-WG and HadCM3 statistical models was applied. To predict changes in the climatic variables (minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, radiation and the number of frost days), 35-year climate data (1985-2020) of Alborz province was used as the base period and input of LARS-WG model. The accuracy of the LARS-WG model for the simulation of temperature (minimum & maximum) and radiation was excellent and for the simulation of precipitation was very good. The investigation of climate variables during optimistic to pessimistic scenarios and climate periods showed that with the increase of CO2 from 18 to 86%, minimum temperature will increase by 10 to 43%, maximum temperature will increase by 6 to 21%, precipitation will increase by 2 to 20% and radiation will increase 0 to 3% and the number of frost days will decrease by 22 to 62%. In Alborz province, the minimum temperature compared to the variables of maximum temperature and precipitation showed a greater difference and decrease compared to the base period, especially in the cold months of the year. Due to the possibility of increased rainfall in Alborz province, which may be in the form of hail or showers, which, if it coincides with the flowering and sensitive stage of plants, production may decrease. In this regard, suitable adaptation strategies for the region should be adopted to reduce the negative effects of changes in the desired climatic parameters.
Keywords: Precipitation, Number of frost days, Climate change, Climate scenarios, Downscaling models.
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |